Page 11 - FDMASIA JanFeb 2024

Market Beats 9
www.fdmasia.com | FDM AsiA Jan/Feb 2024

revised 101.0 in November 2023. The Present Situation
Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business Michael Garlick
and labour market conditions—rose to 148.5 (1985=100) from
136.5 last month.
The Expectations Index— based on consumers’ short-term
outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions—

improved to 85.6 (1985=100) in December 2023, up from
its downwardly revised reading of 77.4 in November 2023.
This sharp increase brings expectations back to the levels of
optimism last seen in July of this year.
“December’s in 2023 increase in consumer confdence
refected more positive ratings of current business conditions
and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of
business, labour market, and personal income prospects over
the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at

The Conference Board. “While December’s in 2023 renewed rose in December 2023, as seen by the more positive views
optimism was seen across all ages and household income of business conditions and the employment situation. By
levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 contrast, when asked to assess their current family fnancial
and households with income levels of $125,000 and above. conditions (a measure not included in calculating the Present
December’s in 2023 write-in responses revealed the top issue Situation Index), the proportion reporting “good” ticked
affecting consumers remains rising prices in general, while down while those saying “bad” rose slightly. This suggests
politics, interest rates, and global conficts all saw downticks consumers’ view of their current fnances may paint a more

as top concerns. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US tempered picture than the perception that overall conditions
Recession over the Next 12 Months abated in December are better than a month ago.”
2023 to the lowest level seen this year—though two-thirds “Consumer expectations for the next six months also
still perceive a downturn is possible in 2024.” increased in December 2023, refecting improved confdence
“Consumer confdence increased in November 2023, about future business conditions, job availability, and incomes.
following three consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Expectations that interest rates will rise in the year ahead
Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “This plummeted to the lowest levels since January 2021, and
improvement refected a recovery in the Expectations Index, consumers’ outlook for stock prices rose to levels of optimism
while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged. last seen in mid-2021. Meanwhile, average 12-month infation

November’s in 2023 increase in consumer confdence expectations continued to recede, and now stands at 5.6
was concentrated primarily among householders aged percent. Consumers’ views of their expected family fnancial
55 and up; by contrast, confdence among householders situation, six months hence (not included in calculating the
aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were Expectations Index) also improved in December 2023. Likewise,
seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in on a month-to-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes,
November 2023. and big-ticket appliances rose moderately across the board,
Peterson added: “Assessments of the present situation ending the year on a slightly more positive note.”