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www.newwindsrealty.com only one forest carbon credit transfer program, titled the North
According to DoF, Vietnam, so far, has been implementing

Central Region Emission Reduction Payment Agreement (ERPA),
which was signed on 22 October 2020 between the Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Development and the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development of the World Bank.

Investment in residential property and construction
continues to contract
China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently released details
regulations on greenhouse gas inventory, emission reduction of investment in real estate development from January to
and development of the domestic carbon market. July 2026.
However, these regulations are not detailed, leading to The accumulated investment was 4,300.9 billion yuan, a
difficulties in implementation. Currently, this Decree is being year-on-year decrease of 19.2 percent of which investment
revised. in residential buildings was 3,317.2 billion yuan, also down

The forestry sector has been undertaking emission reduction 19.1 percent.
activities and in readiness for the domestic carbon market China's residential property investment and construction
and emission reduction targets. continue to contract with no immediate, nationwide recovery
Learning from emission reduction programs and international in sight and analysts generally do not expect a meaningful
voluntary carbon markets, the development of the national stabilisation before 2027.
standard (TCVN) on forest carbon credits has been officially The property downturn is entering its sixth year of contraction,
approved. with sales down roughly 65 percent from peak levels in 2020.

The carbon standard will be considered as part of the National home prices have experienced steep corrections
Vietnam Forest Certification Scheme (VFCS) to generate (with market estimates suggesting drops of 40% or more from
benefits from forest carbon as an additional financing source previous highs) and further moderate declines are expected
for forest owners. through the remainder of this year.
The carbon standard is expected to be issued by the While major tier-one cities like Shanghai and Beijing show
end of 2025. tentative, localised signs of stabilisation or slight price resilience,
According to the DoF, in recent years a number of localities smaller tier-three and tier-four cities remain weighed down
have received proposals from domestic and international by massive housing inventories and weak buyer confidence.
organisations and individuals to provide technical services in The real problem, say many, is confidence not just

measurement, reporting, appraisal and verification of carbon affordability.
credits for selling. China has already deployed multiple support measures
The DoF has warned that the carbon credit trade is over the last few years, including lower down payment
immature and the legal framework is incomplete and in need requirements, looser purchase restrictions in some cities. Yet
of further studies and improvements. the market remains fragile.
To date, Vietnam has collected US$51.5 million from the The deeper problem is confidence. Buyers worry about
sale of forest carbon credits. unfinished homes, further price declines, weak employment