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MATERIALS 53
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manual activities per hectare in each process, as well as the
yield from the respective operations, it is possible to calculate pxhere.com
the production costs for harvesting and transportation.
Similarly, these costs can be calculated during the
implementation and management of stands to contextualise
the total expenditure of the forestry enterprise.

Revenue can be measured based on the price per cubic
metre of timber at the mill and the volume per hectare. Through
revenues and costs, it becomes possible to determine economic
indicators based on an interest rate.
The indicators normally used in the economic analysis of
forestry projects are Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate
of Return (IRR), Average Production Cost (APC), and Periodic separately, without integrating deterministic economic indicators,
Equivalent Value (PEV). probabilistic risk assessment, sensitivity analysis, and the
Regarding risks, any event involving a degree of uncertainty identification of operational threshold values within a single

must have its probability established to achieve a more project-level decision-support framework.
assertive decision-making process. The input variables for In this context, the present study contributes by integrating
economic risk modelling must be considered potential cost operational cost components, transport logistics, and Monte
influencers, justifying an analysis focused on forest harvesting Carlo-based risk analysis into a single economic framework,
and transportation activities. enabling the identification of critical thresholds and managerial
Depreciation and fuel are considered strategic among the limits related to transportation distance, timber price, land cost,
most significant operational cost components in harvesting, and wood productivity.

as they represent a significant portion of fixed and variable This study aimed to conduct a deterministic and probabilistic
costs, respectively. In addition to these factors, transportation economic analysis for a eucalyptus reforestation project using
distance and labour costs also significantly influence forest feasibility indicators. The strategic cost and revenue components
transportation costs. of the forest harvesting and transportation process were
Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of considered as input variables for risk modelling.
deterministic economic indicators, such as NPV and IRR, for
evaluating the financial viability of forestry investment projects. Study Area And Operational System
Monte Carlo simulation has been incorporated into forestry Data were collected from October to December 2024 on a
economic analyses to quantify uncertainty and estimate the property located in the rural area of Viçosa, MG, Brazil, with

probability of investment success under different production 22 hectares of planted Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus urophylla ×
scenarios. Eucalyptus grandis).
In parallel, sensitivity analyses have been applied to identify The transportation distance between the forest and the
the variables with the greatest influence on project performance factory was 69 km, consisting of 64 km of asphalted roads and
and economic risk. 5 km of gravel roads. Considering the round-trip transportation
However, these studies have generally addressed economic cycle, the total distance travelled was 138 km.
evaluation, risk analysis, logistics, or supply chain optimisation The climate in the region is classified as Cwb according to