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FORESTRY PROJECT ECONOMIC RISK

MODELLING WITH HARVEST AND

TRANSPORT COST VARIABLES

The economic viability and risk of a eucalyptus forestry project using deterministic indicators (NPV,
IRR, EAV, APC) and Monte Carlo simulation were evaluated in this study. The integrated approach
through the study identified critical thresholds for transportation distance, timber price, wood
productivity, and land cost, providing practical decision-support parameters for cost management
and risk assessment in similar forestry projects. By Luis Carlos de Freitas, Universidade Estadual
do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB), Márcio Lopes da Silva, Francisco de Assis Costa Ferreira,
Luciano José Minette and Lucas Moraes Rufini de Souza, Universidade Federal de Viçosa
(UFV), Nilton Cesar Fiedler, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES), Cassio Furtado Lima,
Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo (IFES), Roldão Carlos Andrade Lima, Universidade Estadual da
Região Tocantina do Maranhão (UEMASUL), Leonardo França da Silva, Universidade de Brasília
(UnB), Stanley Schettino, Universidade Federal deMinas Gerais, and Victor Crespo de Oliveira,
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)

imber harvesting and transportation are crucial is a strategic measure in decision-making and economic
economic stages in forestry operations, accounting management for the forestry sector.
Tfor a significant portion of the timber cost at the mill. These activities are characterised as the final stage of the
Understanding the cost variables in the harvesting and production cycle, comprising felling, extraction, loading, and
transportation processes which most affect the viability of forest transportation.
forestry projects, as well as the associated risk projections, By knowing the hourly operating costs of machinery and

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